XRP has been moving downwards since April but has bounced at the long-term $0.60 horizontal support area.
While the direction of the long-term trend is unclear, the price has broken out from a short-term resistance line.
Long-term XRP movement
XRP has been moving downwards since reaching a high of $1.96 on April 14. The downward movement continued until a low of $0.51 was reached on June 22.
Its price has bounced since, validating the long-term $0.60 horizontal area as support. Prior to breaking out in March, XRP had consolidated below this level for 924 days.
However, despite the bounce, long-term technical indicators are still bearish. The RSI is below 50 and the Stochastic oscillator has made a bearish cross. Furthermore, the MACD histogram is nearly negative.
Therefore, while the price action seems bullish due to the retest, technical indicators are bearish.
Cryptocurrency trader @Crediblecrypto outlined an XRP chart, stating that the trend is bullish despite its slow start, since a similarly lagging movement transpired in 2018. As we saw in March, a sharp breakout followed a very long period of consolidation. Since it’s still trading above that level at $0.60, the price action remains bullish.
Descending support
The daily chart shows that XRP has been decreasing alongside a descending support line since April 23. So far, the line has been touched multiple times, most recently on June 22.
The ongoing upward movement was preceded by a bullish divergence in the MACD (blue line). In addition to this, the Stochastic oscillator has made a bullish cross and the RSI has moved above 30.
The main resistance area is found between $1.11 and $1.25. This range is the respective 0.5-0.618 Fib retracement resistance levels.
While the daily chart provides a more bullish outlook than the weekly one, it’s not enough to confirm a bullish reversal.
The six-hour XRP chart is more bullish, since it shows a breakout from a descending resistance line. Therefore, it would make sense for an upward movement to follow. Its first target is the $0.92 resistance but the price could potentially move up to the $1.11-$1.25 area.
Wave count
There are two main wave counts that could likely transpire. In the first scenario, the decrease since the April high has been a leading diagonal.
In this case, an upward movement would follow, most likely towards the previously outlined resistance area between $1.11-$1.26.
The other wave count, the current increase is part of the X wave of a W-X-Y corrective structure (orange). In this case, the upward movement should be weaker, reaching a maximum of $1.10 and potentially ending in the $0.92 area.
So, while the direction of the long-term trend is not clear, both wave counts forsee XRP moving upwards in the short-term prior to another eventual drop.
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